Apple’s Blunder Makes You Wonder Monday, July 14th, 2008
Last Fridays roll out of the iPhone 3g was one of the biggest blunders in tech history.
Apple now wants you to buy the new iPhone 3g at retail so they can activate your product but more importantly they lock you into your phone contract (where all the real revenue is).
So this on-site Activation is really a man made road block.
This simple activation process collapsed on Friday under the sheer weight of activation activity. This left people with either brand new iPhones that would not work (activation failed).
Worse still their existing 1st generation iPhone’s were temporarily “bricked” because it could not re-activate due to the activation servers being offline while they tried to upgrade to the free iPhone 2.0 Update.
Apple need to realise the iPhone isn’t a toy, it’s a phone and when thousands of customers can’t use their phones they are frankly unhappy.
Likewise if you just bought a new iPhone that’s going to cost you £600+ and you can’t use it. It must be very frustrating.
So what went wrong?
First let’s look at some numbers.
iPhone 1.0 customers = 20m+ and of those interested in a Day1 upgrade to the free iPhone 2.0 Upgrade is placed at about 6m.
The iPod Touch was eligible for a paid upgrade to the 2.0 Software upgrade.
I can’t see any numbers for touch users so let’s conservatively call it 500,000 users.
Finally the new iPhone 3g users, it 1m (the original iPhone did 128,000 first day sales) but the iPhone 3g was launched internationally.
So a minimum of 7.5m people intent on getting activated on the 2.0 software.
Note you need the 2.0 Update to download Apps to your Apple device (iPhone 1.0 or iPod Touch).
That’s a big number but Apple is in the content distribution business they can handle it.
On paper yes they can, they delivery an unimaginable amount of data via iTunes every day. But they made one mistake they forgot about the wisdom of a 6m+ crowd looking for a free upgrade.
Now its human nature for people to keep pressing buttons in this case check for update if they think something’s going to happen imminently but doesn’t.
So the check for update crowd starts swarming from 5pm on Thursday as news travels around the Internet the App store is live.
If the App Store is live I must be missing something where is my 2.0 update, check for update.
And so on.
By the time the iPhone 3g launches 12/16 hours later millions of people are frantically pressing the check for update. This puts the Activation infrastructure under strain as installing the 2.0 Update requires Re-Activation.
Apple eventually seed the 2.0 update and people start downloading, but the sheer force of the numbers overload the activation servers. So people could download the 2.0 update but not activate leaving them in limbo without a working iPhone.
So those poor people standing in line for an iPhone 3g may be able to get one but had no way of activating or using it.
So one of the largest ever tech roll out’s fails miserably with some really upset customers.
Free Advice for Apple
Don’t roll out internationally if you can’t handle it.
Stagger the roll out. The 2.0 upgrade could have come out either a week before or after the iPhone 3g launch. The person who decided to globally launch 2.0 in one movement made a BIG mistake.





